The Deep Insight

Is there a potential crisis brewing on the Korean peninsula?  North Korea intends to test launch a missile between April 4th and April 8th.  The North Koreans claim that it is for the peaceful purpose of putting a satellite into outer space.  This may or may no be true but they could also use this launch to gauge the success of their long- range missile capabilities.

This situation poses as a significant problem to the new Obama administration.  What should he do?  Various allies in the region such as South Korea and Japan view any advance in North Korean missile technology as a threat to their nations.  The Japanese have made public statements about intentions of shooting down the missile if North Korea launches one.

 North Korea has stated that any aggressive action taken against the missile launch will be considered an act of war. Any decison that Obama makes could have huge geopolitical implications for the world.  If Obama decides to shoot down the missile or lets Japan do it, whats stopping North Korea from launching an attack on South Korea or Japan?

The United States has tens of thousands of troops stationed in South Korea and Japan.  Any attack on these countries would essentially put us at war with North Korea.  Is it in the best interest of the United States to open a third war front? Can we afford to?

With our troops tied up in the middle east, the military would be hard pressed to confront this matter with its full abilities.  Who knows what allies would be drawn into this conflict? Would China support the North Korean’s? If so would that put the United States at war with China? These are the tough question that Obama has to mull through before making a decision on this issue. North Korea intends to launch the missile, so Obama has limited time to make his decision.

Let them Launch:

So what would happen if Obama allows the North Korean’s to launch the missile without incident?  Is there any harm not doing anything?  Yes, and I say this because it has to do with the perception that other countries have about the U.S.  If the United States is viewed as a weak push-over paper tiger, our enemies could perceive this as a sign of weakness and thus proceed with aggressive actions they otherwise wouldn’t have taken.

The signs are there.  Russia invading and occupying Georgia without penalties from the United States or the U.N.  Also,  not too long ago Iran sent a satellite into outer space using their long range missile capabilities without much protest from the United States other than press release condemning Iran’s action.

Iran probably learned quite a bit from their missile launch such as rocket fuel technology, and the capabilities of their long range rockets.  The long range ramifications of this event are not known at this time but could have a significant impact on the region for years to come.

Its no coincidence that North Korea is following in the same path Iran took.  They believe that the United States in unwilling or unable to stop them from doing what they want.  North Korea believes that they can do whatever they want and get away with it.  So far, this idea is ringing true. Will Obama do anything to change this perception? That remains to be seen.